Political scenarios in the run-up to 2014 presidential election704025

One of today's imposing political scenes is the emergence of non-Javanese political figures, these kinds of as Jusuf Kalla, Surya Paloh, Aburizal Bakrie and Hatta Rajasa, right after more than three a long time of hiatus. During the previous 32-yr New Purchase administration, some non-Javanese figures did increase to prominence, but just as technocrats, with no political affect.

The emergence of non-Javanese figures right now, consequently, requires our memory back again to the 1945-1957 democracy period when many non-Javanese countrywide leaders dominated the political scene.

Can these non-Javanese leaders achieve the leading placement of countrywide management? This will intensely depend on no matter whether national leaders of Javanese roots are completely ready to be in positions lower than people of non-Javanese types. For the time getting, we have to acknowledge the simple fact that noteworthy Javanese figures who, due to the fact of ethnic sentiment, have greater possibility to attain to the prime.

At the instant we uncover possible Javanese countrywide leading leader aspirants in Prabowo Subianto, Wiranto, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Jakarta Governor Joko âJokowiâ Widodo. Undeniably, recent surveys expose that Prabowo of the Excellent Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Get together emerges as the most well-liked leader for the best nationwide management.

Wiranto of the Peopleâs Conscience (Hanura) Party, on the other hand, has the prospective to be far more well-known in the in close proximity to foreseeable future than he is today. But this will only happen on problem that âHary effectâ performs properly. As a media mogul, Hary Tanoesoedibjo, who only not too long ago joined the Get together, has the closing word in inserting Wiranto into the orbit of public consideration by means of extensive and abnormal publication through his media chain of Tv stations, and electronic and print media.

Megawati of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Battle (PDI-P) is continuously taken into account as a potential nationwide chief. Her capability to experience 20 million ballots in the 2009 presidential election is estimated to remain unchanged thanks to its robust help from loyalists of Sukarno, her father and the countryâs founding president. Must Megawati â herself a president from 2001-2004 â operate again up coming yr, she has a fantastic possibility to recapture the countryâs best government put up.

Jokowi, a possible darkish horse in the race, has the reward of his âsimplicity lookâ and his achievement throughout his phrases as mayor of Surakarta, Central Java, experienced reverberated to the power centre in Jakarta. His victory in the 2012 Jakarta gubernatorial election relied heavily on the Jakartansâ spell on his âsimplicity lookâ relatively than on the political parties that supported him.

It is apparent that the race to the countryâs best govt post remains a tall purchase as the way to the top will be accompanied by huge polarization and repolarization of social forces that will mark the dynamics of the 2014 presidential election. Although awaiting the rise of Wirantoâs popularity, Probowo warrants to obtain a little bit far more attention. Because the 2009 presidential election, Prabowo created his graphic as, like Hugo Chaves from Venezeula, a populist and anti-worldwide capitalist chief. Becoming the managing mate of Megawati in the 2009 election is a huge political expense for him as his graphic continues to be conserved in the collective minds of the folks.

Nevertheless, Probowoâs âpolitical headwayâ would be challenged by urban motion of intellectuals and âenlightened circlesâ, such as a part in the armed forces elites, who would assiduously attempt to stem his political upsurge.

The root of this âurban movementâ is the 1996-1998 kidnapping of pro-democracy activists. It is publicly acknowledged that Prabowo was the commander of the Armyâs Special Forces (Kopassus) when some of its users were concerned in the incident.

As lengthy as this intellectual resentment evolves in the restricted urban educated circles, theoretically Probowoâs political stride would go unchecked. Beside their small amount, these city mental circles have no effective means to project their enlightened consciousness into the peopleâs minds. The problem is that, their persuasive drive is penetrative adequate into the nationwide elites circles. It is in this context that Megawati and Jokowi are at the forefront.

Iâm tempted to say that for the sake of stemming Prabowoâs political training course, these intellectual circles would attempt to press Jokowi in advance. Even though his leadership in foremost Jakarta is but place to the check, his recognition would skyrocket as soon as he gets his credential as a presidential prospect. The pushing issue of his recognition is the notion that Jokowi is the true embodiment of Marhaenism â Sukarnoâs formulated socio-financial developmental concepts. Much from synthetic physical appearance, Jokowi is genuinely an archetype of a Marhaenist.

This scenerio, even so, wouldnât be a sleek hatch as its success will rely on regardless of whether each Megawati and her daughter Puan Maharani are completely ready to give this golden chance to Jokowi. The urban center course, for that reason, would arrange different script: persuading Megawati herself to go into the political fight.

Viewing that Megawatiâs energy right now is not as huge as during the 2004 general elections, the urban intellectuals would search for a strong and agile operating mate for the 2014 presidential election. It is in this context that the aforementioned non-Javanese figures are the likely candidates. The city intellectuals, as a result, would not be hesitant to see the adhering to pairs: Megawati-Jusuf Kalla, Megawati-Surya Paloh, Megawati-Aburizal Bakrie and Megawati-Hatta Rajasa, as alternate options.

Nevertheless, there is one thing to be extensively pondered. Like Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in the 2004 presidential election, Prabowo is âa growing starâ nowadays. He possesses leeway to choose his pairs, this kind of as Dahlan Iskan, Mahfud MD or even Jokowi himself.

The creator is a political-economic observer and a founder of the Institute for the Study and Progression of Enterprise Ethics (LSPEU) Indonesia).

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